2023 Why They Were Superstitious

 Why They Were Superstitious

2023, Steven B. Zwickel

A young man was telling me he’d walk around the block rather than let a black cat cross his path, so we got to talking about superstitions and different cultures and why people believe in them. That got me to thinking more about why my family emigrated to the US from Galicia (Galicia comprised parts of Eastern Poland and Western Ukraine) and what led some of them to believe in curses, spells, and magic.

In an earlier post about my family’s immigration experience, I wrote about how “food shortages, overpopulation, disease, and poverty” pushed them to leave Eastern Europe. The more I looked into this, the clearer it became that they were often the victims of forces over which they had no control. Here are some examples of just how awful life must have been in the old country and which may explain why, in the days before science and technology were available to help, they may have been superstitious.

Food shortages and Famine

Famines in Galicia, resulting in 50,000 deaths a year from malnutrition, were frequent and have been described as endemic. (See Wikipedia entry for “Famines in Austrian Galicia” < https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famines_in_Austrian_Galicia>) 

According to Wikipedia, “Famines in Austrian Galicia were a common occurrence, particularly in the mid to late 19th century, as Galicia became heavily overpopulated. Triggered primarily by natural disasters such as floods and blights, famines, compounded by overpopulation, led to starvation, widespread malnutrition, epidemics, poverty, an average of 50,000 deaths a year, and from the 1870s to the beginning of World War I, emigration.” 

Famines in Galicia during the 19th century 

[Sources cited in en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famines_in_Austrian_Galicia are indicated by letters]

1804–1806 a

1811–1813 a

1832 a

1836 Heavy flooding destroyed crops

1844 grain and potato crop failure after severe rains and floodingb and famine lasted until 1848a

1845 potato blight {Phytophthora infestans}d followed by more flooding and blight in 1846 c d

1847 partially caused by political unrest and rioting in 1846.b The 1847 famine is estimated to have affected ~90% of the Galician population, and resulted in at least 227,000 deaths.b

1848 famine, ~140,000 deaths.e with reports of cannibalism. b

1849 famine f with some 40,000 deaths. e

1850 famine due to potato blight. b 

1853–1854 starvation h “The Great Famine”

1855 famine f

1865 famine f

1865–1866 starvation h

1871–1872 starvation h

1876 famine f

1880 g  

1889 famine f For more on the famine of 1889, see <https://doroshheritagetours.com/galician-tragedy-in-1889/> and Martin Pollack The Emperor of America: The Big Escape from Galicia.

And a large famine affected many Eastern European territories, including Galicia, as late as 1913. 

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Sources cited in < https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famines_in_Austrian_Galicia>

a Maria Skowronek (1987). Losy Polaków w XIX-XX w: studia ofiarowane prof. Stefanowi Kieniewiczowi w osiemdziesiątą rocznicę Jego urodzin. Państwowe Wydawn. Nauk. p. 61. ISBN 978-83-01-06985-8. [The fate of Poles in the 19th and 20th centuries: In honor of Prof. Stefan Kieniewicz on his 80th birthday. State Publishing. Science.]

b Keely Stauter-Halsted (28 February 2005). The Nation In The Village: The Genesis Of Peasant National Identity In Austrian Poland, 1848–1914. Cornell University Press. p. 26. ISBN 978-0-8014-8996-9.

c Stefan Kieniewicz (1951). Ruch chłopski w Galicji w 1846 roku. Zakład Narodowy imienia Ossolińskich. p. 328.

d Stanisław Grodziski (1976). W królestwie Galicji i Lodomerii. Wydawn. Literackie. p. 175

e Stefan L. Zaleski (1921). General Demography of Poland. Committee for the Polish Encyclopaedic Publications. p. 142

f Alison Fleig Frank (2005). Oil empire. Harvard University Press. p. 45. ISBN 978-0-674-03718-2.

g Larry Wolff (9 January 2012). The Idea of Galicia: History and Fantasy in Habsburg Political Culture. Stanford University Press. p. 256. ISBN 978-0-8047-7429-1.

h Krzysztof Dunin-Wąsowicz (1956). History of the People's Party in Galicia. Ludowa Spółdzielnia Widawnicza. p. 19

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The direct reasons for famines are often given as bad weather and blights (in particular potato blight), but other factors contributed. Most people living in Galicia were subsistence farmers and nearly all of the crops or livestock raised were used to feed and care for the farmer’s family. People had almost no cash to buy tools or other items. 

Because they used primitive farming techniques, unchanged since the Middle Ages, agricultural productivity in Galicia was the lowest of all the provinces of Austria and one of the lowest in Europe. (Markovits, Andrei S. & Sysyn, Frank E. “The Ukrainians in Galicia Under Austrian Rule” Nationbuilding and the Politics of Nationalism: Essays on Austrian Galicia. (1982, Harvard University Press) at http://jgaliciabukovina.net/  ISBN: 9780674603127 p.52)

Epidemics

The Jews of Galicia lived under very difficult housing and health conditions.Farmers living in close proximity to farm animals (and their waste), rodents, insects, and lacking clean water suffered terribly from the diseases mentioned. About 60% of eastern Galicia's Jews lived in cities and towns and urban life in Galicia wasn’t much better. (Encyclopedia of Ukraine <http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/pages/J/E/Jews.htm> ) Neighborhoods were often dirty, crowded, and dark. With their immune systems weakened by an unhealthy diet, diseases like tuberculosis, scarlet fever, diphtheria, measles, whooping cough, typhoid fever, and dysentery spread and killed people. 

Modern medicine—with its understanding of infection, sanitation, nutrition, and hygiene—didn’t reach Galicia until the late 1800s. It wasn’t until the beginning of the 1900s that the health service eliminated smallpox by vaccinating infants. (Berner, Włodzimierz. “Stan sanitarny, ochrona zdrowia i sytuacja epidemiologiczna chorób zakaźnych we Lwowie w okresie autonomii galicyjskiej”. (Lata 60./70. XIX W. -do 1914 R.) [“Sanitary conditions, medical care and epidemiology situation of infectious diseases in Lvov in the period of Galicia autonomy” (from the 1860s/70s to 1914)]. Przegl Epidemiol. 2007; 61(4): 815-25. Polish. PMID: 18572515. <https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18572515/>)

Epidemics in Galicia during the 19th century

Cholera epidemics spread to Galician towns in 1854, 1873, and 1894 and the people, already weak from lack of food, died by the thousands. (Wrobel, Piotr “The Jews of Galicia under Austrian-Polish Rule, 1867-1918” (1994, Austrian History Yearbook, 25) pp.97-138.))

Other epidemics that affected Eastern Europe (Michał Szukała “Ashes, Ashes We All Fall Down”: A History of Epidemics in Poland <https://polishhistory.pl/ashes-ashes-we-all-fall-down-a-history-of-epidemics-in-poland/ >)  included:

1829 Cholera — Began in 1826 in India; in 1830, 37595 killed. By 1831 in Russian cities and towns (197,069 deaths in 1831); especially severe in Volhynia, Podolioa, Grodno, Vilna; brought to Poland by soldiers: Warsaw April 14, 1831; Hungary, June 1831 (100,000 deaths).

1831 Influenza — Began in China 1829; November 1830 –Moscow; January 1831-St. Petersburg; February- Baltic; March-Warsaw; April-Breslau, Berlin, East Prussia; May- Budapest, Prague, Vienna; October-Hamburg. Low mortality

1831 Cholera pandemic — August 1831-from Poland to Berlin; October 1831-Hamburg <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1826–1837_cholera_pandemic>

1831 Plague in Moldova & Wallachia — merged with cholera

1836 Influenza — November 1836-Russia; December-Berlin, Hamburg. More deaths than previous pandemics.

1847 Cholera

1847 Typhus (or some other, unknown fever)

1848 Cholera pandemic — All over Europe.

1850 Bubonic Plague pandemic

1851 Cholera — Poland, Silesia, Pomerania, Prussia. Spread to adjoining Russian provinces and Prussia.

1854 Dysentery, Cholera, Scurvy, Typhus — Crimea/Ukraine spread during Crimean War

1854 Cholera — Galicia The Wielka Cholera (The Great Cholera)

1867 Cholera — Europe, Russia, Germany (115,000 deaths), Austria (80,000 deaths), Hungary (30,000 deaths).

1870-75 Smallpox — Europe

1873 Cholera — Galicia (The Little Cholera). Germany (33,000 deaths), Hungary (190,000 deaths) July-August-troops retreating from Poland and Galicia; Volhynia, Minsk, Mogilev and Grodno.Influenza Asia, Europe Mid-November 1889-Central Europe; late November-Gdansk, Warsaw, Berlin; by December most of Europe. Morbidity ⅓–½. Overall mortality 0.75–1 deaths per 1000 (Highest death toll of any 19^th century disease).

1899 Cholera pandemic

1910 Cholera — June 1910-Eastern Ukraine (230,000 cases with 110,000 deaths-case fatality rate 45%) Ekateinoslav (18,894 cases); Kiev (4077 cases).

1914 Cholera — Austria [outbreak of WWI diseases spread with armies and refugees]

1915 Typhus — Russia

1915 Cholera — Russia July-August-troops retreating from Poland and Galicia; Volhynia, Minsk, Mogilev and Grodno.

1918 Influenza pandemic— 30,000,000 deaths <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics>

Epidemic Diseases — cures and prevention today

Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal infection caused by ingesting contaminated food or water. Two oral cholera vaccines are now available. Cholera is now treated by replacing lost fluids and electrolytes with oral rehydration salts (ORS), which is available as a powder mixed into boiled or bottled water. Without rehydration, approximately half the people with cholera die. <https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/cholera/symptoms-causes/syc-20355287>

Influenza is a highly contagious viral infection of the respiratory passages causing fever, severe aching, and catarrh, and often occurring in epidemics, such as SARS and Covid-19. Nowadays there are vaccines that provide protection against the most dangerous effects of influenza and drugs can be used to treat the disease. <https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/flu/symptoms-causes/syc-20351719>

Plague is a life-threatening diseases caused by Yersinia pestis, a bacteria found in small animals and in their fleas, which bite humans and spread the disease. There is no vaccine available to protect people from bubonic plague. Antibiotics such as streptomycin, gentamicin, doxycycline, or ciprofloxacin are used to treat plague. <https://www.cdc.gov/plague/index.html>

Tuberculosis (TB) is a bacterial infection of the lungs. Tuberculosis can spread when a person with the illness coughs, sneezes or sings. This can put tiny droplets with the germs into the air. Another person can then breathe in the droplets, and the germs enter the lungs. <https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/tuberculosis/symptoms-causes/syc-20351250> It became epidemic in Europe in the 18th and 19th century, showing a seasonal pattern, and is still taking place globally. Today TB can be treated with a combination of anti-bacterial drugs.<https://www.who.int/activities/treating-tuberculosis>

Typhoid fever is spread through food that's come into contact with fecal Salmonella bacteria. Typhoid fever is spread through food that's come into contact with fecal bacteria, often in contaminated water. Nowadays there is a typhoid vaccine to protect people from typhoid fever. Antibiotic therapy is the only effective treatment for typhoid fever. <https://www.cdc.gov/typhoid-fever/index.html>

Typhus (Spotted Fever) is an infectious disease caused by rickettsiae (very small bacteria), characterized by a purple rash, headaches, fever, and usually delirium. It is also called camp fever, jail fever, and war fever, names that suggest overcrowding, underwashing, and lowered standards of living. and was historically a cause of high mortality during wars and famines. Typhus is transmitted by lice, ticks, mites, and rat fleas. Typhus can now be cured by antibiotics like chloramphenicol and by the tetracyclines. A vaccine for typhus was developed during World War II and is quite effective. <https://www.britannica.com/science/typhus>

Is it any wonder, then, that faced with starvation, sickness, and grinding poverty, they turned to magic—superstition, amulets, faith healers, and charms—to try to ward off the evil forces that made life so painful (and short)? 

✒ For more about mysticism and superstition among Eastern European Jews (and their non-Jewish neighbors), see Men of Silk : the Hasidic Conquest of Polish Jewish Society; Glenn Dynner (2006; Oxford U. Press)

2023 They are Coming to Take Your Stuff [according to Bard]

 Written by Bard, an Artificial Intelligence app from Google, 

following a prompt by Steven B. Zwickel

April, 2023

Prompt: Write a college-level essay about Americans' fear that the government is going to take away their property, such as guns, going back to the Civil War, when southerners were afraid of losing their slaves.

Bard's response:

Americans have long feared that the government will take away their property, a fear that can be traced back to the Civil War, when southerners were afraid of losing their slaves. This fear has been fueled by a number of factors, including the government's seizure of private property during times of war, the passage of laws that restrict the use of property, and the perception that the government is becoming increasingly intrusive.

The fear of government taking away property is rooted in the belief that the government is not to be trusted. This belief is based on a number of historical events, including the government's seizure of private property during times of war. For example, during the Civil War, the Union government seized millions of dollars worth of property from southerners, including land, slaves, and livestock. This seizure of property was seen by many southerners as a violation of their rights and a sign that the government was not to be trusted.

The fear of government taking away property is also fueled by the passage of laws that restrict the use of property. For example, the government has passed laws that restrict the use of land for development, the use of water for irrigation, and the use of firearms. These laws are seen by many as an infringement on their rights and a sign that the government is becoming increasingly intrusive.

Finally, the fear of government taking away property is based on the perception that the government is becoming increasingly powerful. This perception is based on a number of factors, including the government's increasing involvement in the economy, the government's increasing surveillance of its citizens, and the government's increasing use of force. This perception of government power is seen by many as a threat to their liberty and a sign that the government is becoming too powerful.

The fear of government taking away property is a real and pressing concern for many Americans. This fear is based on a number of historical events, the passage of laws that restrict the use of property, and the perception that the government is becoming increasingly powerful. This fear is likely to continue to be a major issue in American politics in the years to come.

In addition to the historical and political factors that have contributed to the fear of government taking away property, there are also a number of psychological factors that play a role. For example, people tend to be more likely to fear something that they do not understand. This is because uncertainty can lead to anxiety and fear. In the case of government taking away property, many people do not understand the complex legal and economic issues involved. This lack of understanding can lead to fear and anxiety.

Another psychological factor that contributes to the fear of government taking away property is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events. This is known as the availability heuristic. The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that people use to estimate the probability of an event occurring. When people are asked to estimate the probability of something happening, they tend to rely on how easily they can recall examples of it happening. For example, if people are asked to estimate the probability of being in a car accident, they are more likely to overestimate the probability if they have recently heard about a car accident.

The availability heuristic can lead to people overestimating the likelihood of government taking away property. This is because people are more likely to hear about cases where the government has taken away property, such as during the Civil War or the Great Depression. However, these cases are relatively rare. The vast majority of people will never have their property taken away by the government.

Despite the fact that the fear of government taking away property is often based on misconceptions and psychological biases, it is a real and pressing concern for many Americans. This fear is likely to continue to be a major issue in American politics in the years to come.

2023 Inducing Sherlock Holmes

Inducing Sherlock Holmes

Steven B. Zwickel

March, 2023

The first Sherlock Holmes’ mystery I read was “The Red-Headed League.”1 I was probably about 10 or 11 and I was immediately hooked. The idea of observing closely and paying attention to small details intrigued me.

I got so caught up in Arthur Conan Doyle’s fictional detective’s adventures I hung up a sign on our front porch advertising myself as a “Public Detective.” (I wanted to serve the public, you see, and not just a few private people). When an older couple, misunderstanding my sign, came to the door to inquire about the space they thought was for rent, my folks made me take down the sign.

Sherlock’s methods never left me. I became, and continue to be, acutely aware of incongruities and anachronisms. I notice whenever I see something on TV or in a movie that is out of place or set in the wrong time. A scene that takes place at dawn should have long shadows. Shakespeare goofed when he had a clock strike the hour in ancient Rome. Since I come from a family of furniture makers, I know you shouldn’t see an art deco chair in a scene set in Colonial America.

Because I pay attention to details, I find the casting in most of the movies and TV shows about Sherlock Holmes annoying. Look up  “Sherlock” and you will find that it means “fair haired” or blonde.2 However, every single actor who has portrayed the detective has had dark hair, with two exceptions. Peter Cushing in “The Hound Of The Baskervilles” (1959) was blonde and Michael Caine, who played Sherlock for laughs in “Without A Clue” (1988), was a brunette. Whoever cast Jeremy Brett, Basil Rathbone, and the rest either didn’t bother to find out what “Sherlock” means or decided to ignore it.

Sherlock is renowned for his powers of “deduction”, a term that bugs me, because deduction is the wrong way to describe what he does. Holmes examines a clue, then draws on his vast knowledge of the world3 to reach a conclusion about the meaning of that clue. This process—going from an understanding of the general to a particular example—is called induction.4 Scientific method—collecting and testing numerous samples to test a hypothesis to reach a conclusion about the world—is deduction.

When Holmes picks up a cigarette butt and compares it to his enormous collection of tobacco products, he is doing induction. I like the way he surprises people in the Doyle stories and on screen, most of whom are pretty oblivious, by “connecting the dots” and reaching a conclusion.

I like the fact that Holmes is so clever at recognizing patterns, not just of objects, but also patterns of behavior. He compares what he witnesses to his knowledge and draws a conclusion. I tried to emulate this skill as a mediator and when doing counseling. Everyone is different, of course, but there are definitely common patterns of behavior that can be detected in counseling. Often these are self-destructive behaviors, such as taking drugs or drinking. Once these behaviors are identified, they can become part of an effective counseling strategy. Holmes learns from experience and applies what he learns about the world and about people to each case.

As a college professor a  lot of my energy went into trying to understand how people learn. Years ago I was asked to put together a short program for new teaching assistants (TAs). These were graduate students in the college of engineering who were going to be working as instructors of undergrads. I put together a variety of some two dozen items that were not easily identifiable and set them out on paper plates. Each plate had a number.

I told the new teaching assistants to walk around the table, examine each item, and write down the number on the plate and what they thought the item was.

When they had completed their lists, I had each TA tell me about an item. Sometimes they were completely stumped, but if they got it right, I asked them “How do you know what that is?” and I kept track of their answers on the chalkboard.

Almost every answer was “Because I’ve seen one before” and almost no one said “Because I read about it in a book.” The point was that book learning is fine, as far as it goes, but it is no substitute for real-world experience. 

For grad students this exercise was an eye-opener. Grad students live in a world full of books and articles that they must read to master their fields. The exercise led into a lively discussion of how people learn and the value of combining academic learning with real-life experience, just like Sherlock Holmes.

The real lessons here are about learning to pay attention to the world around you. I see so many people walking around with their faces buried in their phones, oblivious to everything but their screens. They seem to live in a little electronic bubble and I wonder how they will ever be able to cope with reality. Even if they do look up, if they aren't attentive to their surroundings, they will remain ignorant of the world. As Sherlock would say, they see, but they don't observe.5

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1 Read it for yourself at <https://sherlock-holm.es/stories/pdf/a4/1-sided/redh.pdf>

2 See <https://www.etymonline.com/word/sherlock>

3 “…Holmes demonstrates a working knowledge of: chemistry, bloodstain identification, botany, geology, anatomy, law, cryptanalysis, fingerprinting, document examination, ballistics, psychological profiling and forensic medicine.” <https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/sherlock-holmes-and-the-tools-of-deduction-10556242>

4 See <https://thedailycoach.substack.com/p/the-power-of-inductive-reasoning>

5 A recent article in the New York Times alerted me to the fact that inductive reasoning is what doctors do. They compare what they observe and what tests reveal to what they know and try to come up with a diagnosis. "For more than a century, doctors have been portrayed like detectives who gather clues and use them to find the culprit. But experienced doctors actually use a different method — pattern recognition — to figure out what is wrong. In medicine, it’s called an illness script: signs, symptoms and test results that doctors put together to tell a coherent story based on similar cases they know about or have seen themselves. If the illness script doesn’t help, Dr. Rodman said, doctors turn to other strategies, like assigning probabilities to various diagnoses that might fit." - Gina Kolata "A Mystery in the E.R.? Ask Dr. Chatbot for a Diagnosis. (July 22, 2023 The New York Times) <https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/22/health/chatbot-medical-mystery-diagnosis.html> 

And, of course, there was the TV show "House", in which a doctor used inductive reasoning to diagnose difficult cases. It's no coincidence that Dr. House's name resembled Sherlock Holmes'!